Influence of spatial heterogeneity on an emerging infectious disease: the case of dengue epidemics

Authored by C Favier, N Degallier, D Schmit, CDM Muller-Graf, B Cazelles, B Mondet, MA Dubois

Date Published: 2005

DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2004.3020

Sponsors: French Ministries

Platforms: No platforms listed

Model Documentation: Other Narrative Mathematical description

Model Code URLs: Model code not found

Abstract

The importance of spatial heterogeneity and spatial scales (at a village or neighbourhood scale) has been explored with individual-based models. Our reasoning is based on the Chilean Easter Island (EI) case, where a first dengue epidemic occurred in 2002 among the relatively small population localized in one village. Even in this simple situation, the real epidemic is not consistent with homogeneous models. Conversely, including contact heterogeneity on different scales (intra-households, inter-house, inter-areas) allows the recovery of not only the El epidemiological curve but also the qualitative patterns of Brazilian urban dengue epidemic in more complex situations.
Tags
networks health Model Brazil transmission Climate-change Virus Borne diseases Fever