Pattern-oriented modelling for estimating unknown pre-breeding survival rates: The case of the Lesser Spotted Woodpecker (Picoides minor)
Authored by Niels Blaum, Volker Grimm, Florian Jeltsch, Eva Rossmanith
Date Published: 2007
DOI: 10.1016/j.biocon.2006.11.002
Sponsors:
German Federal Environmental Foundation (DBU)
Platforms:
No platforms listed
Model Documentation:
Other Narrative
Model Code URLs:
Model code not found
Abstract
in population viability analysis we are often faced with a lack of
knowledge of survival rates in animal populations. In particular, survival of recruits is usually hard to assess. However, data on
population structure might be considered as patterns that contain
valuable information to estimate missing parameters indirectly. As an
example for this pattern-oriented modelling and parameterization, pre-breeding survival rate of the endangered Lesser Spotted Woodpecker
(Picoides minor) was determined here using data on population structure
(e.g. sex ratio) and reproductive success at the population level (e.g.
nesting success). Therefore, an individual-based model was developed
simulating the population dynamics for two different populations that
had been empirically studied at Lake Mockeln, Sweden, and Taunus, Germany. For both populations, a small range for pre-breeding survival
rates could be identified wherein all simulated patterns corresponded
best to the empirical values. Prebreeding survival rate was found to be
higher in the German scenario than in the Swedish and geographical
variation in life-history traits is discussed as a possible reason. It
is concluded that the pattern-oriented approach is a valuable method for
estimating missing demographic parameters, even when using weak patterns
from empirical investigations. Furthermore, it was shown that the use of
multiple patterns is necessary for this purpose. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd.
All rights reserved.
Tags
Performance
ecology
Dispersal
Extinction
Age
Reproduction
Persistence
Population viability
Mating system
Dendrocopos-minor