Landscape Epidemiology Modeling Using an Agent-Based Model and a Geographic Information System

Authored by Gregory R Madey, S M Niaz Arifin, Rumana Reaz Arifin, Dilkushi de Alwis Pitts, M Sohel Rahman, Sara Nowreen, Frank H Collins

Date Published: 2015

DOI: 10.3390/land4020378

Sponsors: Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation

Platforms: Java

Model Documentation: Other Narrative Flow charts

Model Code URLs: Model code not found

Abstract

A landscape epidemiology modeling framework is presented which integrates the simulation outputs from an established spatial agent-based model (ABM) of malaria with a geographic information system (GIS). For a study area in Kenya, five landscape scenarios are constructed with varying coverage levels of two mosquito-control interventions. For each scenario, maps are presented to show the average distributions of three output indices obtained from the results of 7 5 0 simulation runs. Hot spot analysis is performed to detect statistically significant hot spots and cold spots. Additional spatial analysis is conducted using ordinary kriging with circular semivariograms for all scenarios. The integration of epidemiological simulation-based results with spatial analyses techniques within a single modeling framework can be a valuable tool for conducting a variety of disease control activities such as exploring new biological insights, monitoring epidemiological landscape changes, and guiding resource allocation for further investigation.

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