A validated agent-based model to study the spatial and temporal heterogeneities of malaria incidence in the rainforest environment
Authored by Francesco Pizzitutti, William Pan, Alisson Barbieri, J Jaime Miranda, Beth Feingold, Gilvan R Guedes, Javiera Alarcon-Valenzuela, Carlos F Mena
Date Published: 2015
DOI: 10.1186/s12936-015-1030-7
Sponsors:
The Interamerican Institute for Global Change Research
Platforms:
MASON
Model Documentation:
ODD
Flow charts
Mathematical description
Model Code URLs:
Model code not found
Abstract
Background: The Amazon environment has been exposed in the last decades
to radical changes that have been accompanied by a remarkable rise of
both Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax malaria. The malaria
transmission process is highly influenced by factors such as spatial and
temporal heterogeneities of the environment and individual-based
characteristics of mosquitoes and humans populations. All these
determinant factors can be simulated effectively trough agent-based
models.
Methods: This paper presents a validated agent-based model of
local-scale malaria transmission. The model reproduces the environment
of a typical riverine village in the northern Peruvian Amazon, where the
malaria transmission is highly seasonal and apparently associated with
flooding of large areas caused by the neighbouring river. Agents
representing humans, mosquitoes and the two species of Plasmodium (P.
falciparum and P. vivax) are simulated in a spatially explicit
representation of the environment around the village. The model
environment includes: climate, people houses positions and elevation. A
representation of changes in the mosquito breeding areas extension
caused by the river flooding is also included in the simulation
environment.
Results: A calibration process was carried out to reproduce the
variations of the malaria monthly incidence over a period of 3 years.
The calibrated model is also able to reproduce the spatial
heterogeneities of local scale malaria transmission. A ``what if{''}
eradication strategy scenario is proposed: if the mosquito breeding
sites are eliminated through mosquito larva habitat management in a
buffer area extended at least 200 m around the village, the malaria
transmission is eradicated from the village.
Conclusions: The use of agent-based models can reproduce effectively the
spatiotemporal variations of the malaria transmission in a low
endemicity environment dominated by river floodings like in the Amazon.
Tags
multiagent simulation
transmission
Vector anopheles-darlingi
Peruvian amazon
Plasmodium-falciparum
Seasonal distribution
Brazilian amazon
Central-america
Biting rate
Mosquitos