Cellular Agent-Based Approach Incorporating Spatial Discrete Choice Methods Simulation of Future Land Use Impacts of High-Speed Rail on Aveiro, Portugal

Authored by Yu Shen, Luis Miguel Martinez, Joao de Abreu e Silva

Date Published: 2014

DOI: 10.3141/2430-11

Sponsors: Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT)

Platforms: Java ArcGIS AnyLogic

Model Documentation: Other Narrative Flow charts Mathematical description

Model Code URLs: Model code not found

Abstract

A cellular agent based model was designed to simulate the potential land use impacts of the future high-speed rail (HSR) service on the city of Aveiro, Portugal, and its neighboring municipalities. The model incorporated a spatial discrete choice method as a submodel, which estimated land use evolution behavior based on the growth of socioeconomic variables and the increase of road and railway accessibility. For validation purposes, the model was first run to test the historical land use change in the study area from 1991 to 2011. Based on the validated model, an analysis of three scenarios with different hypothetical HSR station locations was implemented to estimate the future land use impacts of HSR between 2011 and 2031. The simulation revealed that the introduction of HSR service could offer great opportunities for land use development in the area and that the station location within the city of Aveiro showed relatively better attractiveness to the development of new urban fabric and commercial and industrial land covers.

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