The effect of dispersal and temperature on the early life history of a temperate marine fish
Authored by Alistair J Hobday, Sean R Tracey, Klaas Hartmann
Date Published: 2012
DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-2419.2012.00628.x
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Model Documentation:
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Mathematical description
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Abstract
Understanding the mechanisms that influence the successful recruitment
of marine species is one of the great challenges in marine science, particularly for species that undergo a protracted larval phase. Here we
apply a bio-physical individual-based model (IBM) which couples data
from a high-resolution oceanographic model with temperature-related
survival characteristics for the early life stage of a temperate marine
fish. The IBM was run retrospectively for the years 19932007 with
spawning locations occurring around Tasmania, Australia. Meso-scale
oceanographic features led to individuals spawned on the west coast, and
to a lesser extent the south coast, being washed ashore prior to
achieving a competent size to actively influence their migratory paths.
Individuals spawned on the east coast had significantly higher survival
rates. Temperature-induced mortality was relatively consistent across
years. This indicates that the dispersal envelopes, of pre-flexion
larvae, across all years are predominately within the thermal niche of
this species. To further understand the effect of temperature on
survival we integrated global climate model warming scenarios into the
model. The results indicated that around the year 2050 the predicted
warming would have a minor positive effect on the survival of
individuals but by 2100 the pejus temperature will frequently be
exceeded leading to a significant decline in survival, particularly
towards the northern end of the dispersal range.
Tags
Conservation
growth
Australia
Climate-change
New-zealand
Population connectivity
Interannual variability
Larval fish
Trumpeter latris-lineata
Thermal tolerance