Appropriate resolution in time and model structure for population viability analysis: Insights from a butterfly metapopulation
Authored by Volker Grimm, Juergen Groeneveld, Viktoriia Radchuk, Karin Johst, Camille Turlure, Nicolas Schtickzelle
Date Published: 2014
DOI: 10.1016/j.biocon.2013.12.004
Sponsors:
National Fund for Scientific Research of Belgium (F.R.S.-FNRS)
Platforms:
NetLogo
Model Documentation:
ODD
Mathematical description
Model Code URLs:
Model code not found
Abstract
The importance of a careful choice of the appropriate scale for studying
ecological phenomena has been stressed repeatedly. However, issues of
spatial scale in metapopulation dynamics received much more attention
compared to temporal scale. Moreover, multiple calls were made to
carefully choose the appropriate model structure for Population
Viability Analysis (PVA). We assessed the effect of using coarser
resolution in time and model structure on population dynamics. For this
purpose, we compared outcomes of two PVA models differing in their time
step: daily individual-based model (dIBM) and yearly stage-based model
(ySBM), loaded with empirical data on a well-known metapopulation of the
butterfly Boloria eunomia. Both models included the same environmental
drivers of population dynamics that were previously identified as being
the most important for this species. Under temperature change scenarios, both models yielded the same qualitative scenario ranking, but they
quite substantially differed quantitatively with dIBM being more
pessimistic in absolute viability measures. We showed that these
differences stemmed from inter-individual heterogeneity in dIBM allowing
for phenological shifts of individual appearance. We conclude that a
finer temporal resolution and an individual-based model structure allow
capturing the essential mechanisms necessary to go beyond mere PVA
scenario ranking. We encourage researchers to carefully chose the
temporal resolution and structure of their model aiming at (1) depicting
the processes important for (meta)population dynamics of the species and
(2) implementing the environmental change scenarios expected for their
study system in the future, using the temporal resolution at which such
changes are predicted to operate. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights
reserved.
Tags
Individual-based model
Dynamics
Diversity
ecology
habitat
Climate-change
Transition
Life-history
Scaling-up
Caterpillars