Inter-annual variability influences the eco-evolutionary dynamics of range-shifting

Authored by Calvin Dytham, Justin MJ Travis, Greta Bocedi, Roslyn C Henry

Date Published: 2014

DOI: 10.7717/peerj.228

Sponsors: United Kingdom Natural Environment Research Council (NERC)

Platforms: No platforms listed

Model Documentation: Other Narrative Mathematical description

Model Code URLs: Model code not found

Abstract

Understanding the eco-evolutionary dynamics of species under rapid climate change is vital for both accurate forecasting of biodiversity responses and for developing effective management strategies. Using an individual-based model we demonstrate that the presence and form (colour) of inter-annual variability in environmental conditions can impact the evolution of dispersal during range shifts. Under stable climate, temporal variability typically results in higher dispersal. However, at expanding margins, inter-annual variability actually inhibits the evolution of higher emigration propensities by disrupting the spatial sorting and natural selection processes. These results emphasize the need for future theoretical studies, as well as predictive modelling, to account for the potential impacts of inter-annual variability.

Tags

Predator Populations Responses Invasions Margins Dispersal evolution Rapid climate-change Competitive communities Habitat availability Extinctions