Simulating land-use degradation in West Africa with the ALADYN model
Authored by Itzhak Benenson, Yulia Grinblat, Giora J Kidron, Arnon Karnieli
Date Published: 2015
DOI: 10.1016/j.jaridenv.2014.05.019
Sponsors:
United States Agency for International Development Project
Platforms:
NetLogo
Model Documentation:
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Abstract
West Africa faces a rapid growth in population and a subsequent demand
for food production. Despite increasing demand, local farmers still
follow traditional practices and try to overcome low productivity by
continuously expanding cultivated areas. To assess the consequences of
this expansion and to describe, based on anticipated population growth
rates and land accessibility, the dynamics of agricultural land-use, we
developed a spatially explicit agent-based ALADYN model of agricultural
land use in the savannah around Kita, Mali. The model is based on remote
sensing data on agricultural land use and data from field surveys. The
ALADYN simulations clearly demonstrate that traditional agriculture is
not sustainable. Even under the optimistic scenario of a declining rate
of population growth, the current agricultural practices will result in
the cultivation of all available agricultural lands by 2015. Under
current practices, every farm will experience a period of 1-3 years
every 15-20 years, during which field fertility will be too low to allow
cultivation. Thus, to avoid severe food shortage, emigration or
alternative sources of food are necessary. Comparison of the model and
remote sensing data reveals that already in 2003 the cultivated part of
the study area is lower than projected. That is, farmers anticipate
over-exploitation and, most probably, emigrate from the area. The model
highlights the great need for new agricultural practices in West Africa.
(C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Tags
Agriculture
Management
fertility
systems
Sub-saharan africa
Burkina-faso
Soil nutrient depletion
Semiarid tropics
Vegetation indexes
Southern mali