Analytical models approximating individual processes: A validation method

Authored by C Favier, N Degallier, C E Menkes

Date Published: 2010

DOI: 10.1016/j.mbs.2010.08.014

Sponsors: European Union

Platforms: No platforms listed

Model Documentation: Other Narrative Flow charts Mathematical description

Model Code URLs: Model code not found

Abstract

Upscaling population models from fine to coarse resolutions, in space, time and/or level of description, allows the derivation of fast and tractable models based on a thorough knowledge of individual processes. The validity of such approximations is generally tested only on a limited range of parameter sets. A more general validation test, over a range of parameters, is proposed; this would estimate the error induced by the approximation, using the original model's stochastic variability as a reference. This method is illustrated by three examples taken from the field of epidemics transmitted by vectors that bite in a temporally cyclical pattern, that illustrate the use of the method: to estimate if an approximation over- or under-fits the original model; to invalidate an approximation; to rank possible approximations for their qualities. As a result, the application of the validation method to this field emphasizes the need to account for the vectors' biology in epidemic prediction models and to validate these against finer scale models. (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Tags

Simulation ecology population systems disease Cellular-automata Metapopulation dynamics Dengue epidemics Aedes-aegypti diptera Life table model