An individual-based model for population viability analysis of the brooding coral Seriatopora hystrix
Authored by Soyoka Muko, Seiji Arakaki, Reiko Tamai, Kazuhiko Sakai
Date Published: 2014
DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2014.01.025
Sponsors:
Japanese Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS)
Platforms:
Mathematica
Model Documentation:
ODD
Flow charts
Mathematical description
Model Code URLs:
Model code not found
Abstract
Species of brooding corals are declining and disappeared from some reefs
near southwestern Japan. We therefore developed an individual-based
model of the threatened species Seriatopora hystrix to assess local
population viability. Life history parameters of the individual colonies
represented in the model were estimated from field observations made on
a 5m x 5m quadrat at Urunosachi, Kerama Islands, during 2009 and 2010.
When assuming that recruitment was restricted to local self-recruitment, we found that the modelled Urunosachi population was maintained if the
survival rate was equal to the upper limit of the 95\% confidence
interval, but gradually declined close to extinction after 10 years if
the survival rate was the estimated means value. If larvae were supplied
from outside the population, the population could persist over time even
if the expected survival rate was considered, but the immigrating rate
of larvae required for persistence was very high. Further research is
necessary to locate other S. hystrix populations near the Urunosachi
population and to evaluate the connectivity among populations to
determine whether the Urunosachi population is viable. We also examined
how many recruits from other populations were needed to initiate the
recovery of the population if it was severely affected by certain
disturbances. Constant recruitment or occasional high-level recruitment
could promote the recovery of the S. hystrix population. (C) 2014
Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Tags
Dynamics
Climate-change
Size
Great-barrier-reef
Gene flow
Scleractinian corals
Ryukyu archipelago
Building corals
Southern japan
Thermal-stress