How interactions between animal movement and landscape processes modify local range dynamics and extinction risk

Authored by Barry W Brook, Damien A Fordham, Nathan H Schumaker, Kevin T Shoemaker, H Resit Akcakaya, Nathan Clisby

Date Published: 2014

DOI: 10.1098/rsbl.2014.0198

Sponsors: United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Australian Research Council (ARC) United States National Science Foundation (NSF)

Platforms: RAMAS GIS

Model Documentation: Other Narrative

Model Code URLs: Model code not found

Abstract

Forecasts of range dynamics now incorporate many of the mechanisms and interactions that drive species distributions. However, connectivity continues to be simulated using overly simple distance-based dispersal models with little consideration of how the individual behaviour of dispersing organisms interacts with landscape structure (functional connectivity). Here, we link an individual-based model to a niche-population model to test the implications of this omission. We apply this novel approach to a turtle species inhabiting wetlands which are patchily distributed across a tropical savannah, and whose persistence is threatened by two important synergistic drivers of global change: predation by invasive species and over-exploitation. We show that projections of local range dynamics in this study system change substantially when functional connectivity is modelled explicitly. Accounting for functional connectivity in model simulations causes the estimate of extinction risk to increase, and predictions of range contraction to slow. We conclude that models of range dynamics that simulate functional connectivity can reduce an important source of bias in predictions of shifts in species distributions and abundances, especially for organisms whose dispersal behaviours are strongly affected by landscape structure.

Tags

Conservation Dispersal Density Climate-change Indigenous harvest Pig predation