Modeling the impact of climate variability on Black Sea anchovy recruitment and production
Authored by Ceren Guraslan, Bettina A Fach, Temel Oguz
Date Published: 2014
DOI: 10.1111/fog.12080
Sponsors:
European Union
Platforms:
No platforms listed
Model Documentation:
Other Narrative
Model Code URLs:
Model code not found
Abstract
The connection of climate variability with anchovy spawning and
recruitment in the Black Sea in particular, and other ecosystems in
general, was studied using a two-way coupled lower trophic level and
anchovy bioenergetics model. Climate variability was represented by a
50-yr time series of daily temperature and vertical mixing rates with
stochastic variations. Temperature was found to be the dominant factor
influencing early life stages and hence population dynamics of Black Sea
anchovy as marked by a high correlation of anchovy egg production and
recruitment success in response to changes in temperature. Each decrease
of 2 degrees C in summer mean temperatures resulted in a delay in the
timing of egg production of between 12 and 19 days. Water temperatures
in the spawning season had a greater influence than the number of
available spawning females on the intensity of egg production. Anchovy
recruitment was similarly influenced by temperature, with decreased
temperatures resulting in a significant delay in the onset of peak
recruitment during the fall by 21-38 days. Also, recruitment numbers in
December decreased by about 20\% with decreasing temperatures. The
impact of temperature on production was slightly diminished by the
impact of vertical mixing. The strong linkage of climate variability
with anchovy spawning and recruitment has an important prediction
potential for short-term anchovy stock estimations, which may serve
fisheries management purposes.
Tags
Individual-based
model
Sardine sardina-pilchardus
Oyashio transitional waters
Engraulis-encrasicolus l.
Population-dynamics model
Small pelagic fish
Long-term changes
Japanese anchovy
Environmental variability
Mediterranean-sea