Population models for social species: lessons learned from models of Red-cockaded Woodpeckers (Picoides borealis)
Authored by Sara L Zeigler, Jeffrey R Walters
Date Published: 2014
DOI: 10.1890/13-1275.1
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Abstract
Behavior can have major impacts on the population dynamics of social
species and should be incorporated into demographic models to
realistically evaluate population trends and extinction risk. We
compared the predictions of a stage- and age-based matrix model, an
individual-based model (IBM, developed in the program Vortex), and a
spatially explicit individual-based model (SEPM) with the actual
dynamics of a population of Red-cockaded Woodpeckers (RCW; Picoides
borealis) in the Sandhills of North Carolina, USA. Predictions, including population size, composition, and growth rate, differed the
most from actual population characteristics for models that did not
incorporate social structure. The SEPM most closely predicted actual
population dynamics, underestimating the population by 2.3\%. This
model, specifically developed to simulate RCW population dynamics, contains many of the features that we assert are important for
adequately incorporating social behavior into demographic and population
modeling. These features include the ability to (1) differentiate
individuals based on their stage class, (2) capture the dynamics of the
population at both the individual and group level, (3) incorporate the
positive or negative effects of subdominants, (4) include environmental
and demographic stochasticity, and (5) capture dispersal and other
spatial factors. The RCW SEPM, although currently species-specific, provides a strong blueprint for how population models for social species
could be constructed in the future when data allow.
Tags
behavior
Management
Dynamics
fitness
Reproductive success
Group-size
Viability analysis
Cooperative enhancement
Alpine marmot
Predictions