Changes in species' distributions during and after environmental change: which eco-evolutionary processes matter more?
Authored by Calvin Dytham, Justin MJ Travis, Tim G benton, Karen Mustin
Date Published: 2014
DOI: 10.1111/ecog.01194
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Abstract
Improving our capacity for predicting range shifts requires improved
theory exploring the interplay between ecological and evolutionary
processes and the (changing) environment. We introduce an
individual-based model incorporating simple stage structure and
genetically determined resource allocation rules. Population dynamics
are mediated by the resources available and the individual's genetics, and density dependence emerges solely as a consequence of resource
levels decreasing as population density increases. Running the model for
a set of stylised range-expansion scenarios reveals the extent to which
eco-evolutionary processes can matter: spatial assortment of individuals
possessing effective range expansion strategies (higher dispersal
propensity, semelparity rather than iteroparity) can substantially
accelerate range advance, and this is more important than the
contribution of novel mutations arising during range expansion. In
simulations of range expansion there is a greater risk of extinction
when all individuals are given the mean strategy evolved in a stationary
range. Additionally, our results demonstrate that the erosion of
inter-individual variability during a range-shift can depress population
abundance for lengthy periods, even after the climate has stabilised.
Our theoretical results highlight the importance of accounting for
inter-individual variability in future predictive modelling of species'
responses to environmental change.
Tags
phenotypic plasticity
Climate-change
Population-dynamics
Consequences
Life-history
Invasions
Range expansion
Biodiversity
conservation
Dispersal evolution
Semelparity