Testing individual-based models of forest dynamics: Issues and an example from the boreal forests of Russia

Authored by Jacquelyn K Shuman, Olga N Krankina

Date Published: 2014

DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2013.10.028

Sponsors: United States National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)

Platforms: No platforms listed

Model Documentation: Other Narrative

Model Code URLs: Model code not found

Abstract

Testing ecological models involves using independent data on model performance, which can be difficult or practically impossible to obtain. Individual based models of forest dynamics, or gap models, simulate the change of forests by computing the annual growth, birth and death of each tree at a location in a forest. The models are relatively simple and simulate results that can be translated to multiple response scales: Individual plant growth, population birth-death processes, stand environmental dynamics (e.g., evapotranspiration, element cycling, heat flux, etc.), landscape processes, and regional and global change. This paper reviews some of the approaches applied to testing gap models. Then, it demonstrates the testing of the performance of an individual-based gap model of forest dynamics, FAREAST, through comparison against independent data from China and across Russia. As part of this model testing, biomass simulation output for 93 locations is compared to independent field-collected inventory-data from 44 Russian forests, which span a broad range of forest types across Russia. FAREAST captures biomass dynamics and stabilization at specific locations bracketing the measured values. At Changbai Mountain, the model accurately predicts the community dynamics of complex mixed forest types present along an elevational gradient, as well as the broad regional compositional patterns across China and Russia. Validation of regional detailed landscape dynamics shows the model performs with fidelity with an average R-2 value of 0.74 for 87 comparisons and an average root mean square error of 10.8 tC ha(-1). Performance of the model for historical conditions implies the model's applicability across a broad region and suggests the usefulness of a detailed model for evaluating forest change to management and changing climate. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Tags

Management Simulations biomass Validation patterns global change Protocol Ecological models Carbon budget Gap models