An Agent-Based Epidemic Simulation of Social Behaviors Affecting HIV Transmission among Taiwanese Homosexuals

Authored by Chung-Yuan Huang

Date Published: 2015

DOI: 10.1155/2015/867264

Sponsors: Republic of China National Science Council

Platforms: No platforms listed

Model Documentation: Other Narrative Flow charts

Model Code URLs: Model code not found

Abstract

Computational simulations are currently used to identify epidemic dynamics, to test potential prevention and intervention strategies, and to study the effects of social behaviors on HIV transmission. The author describes an agent-based epidemic simulation model of a network of individuals who participate in high-risk sexual practices, using number of partners, condom usage, and relationship length to distinguish between high-and low-risk populations. Two new concepts-free links and fixed links-are used to indicate tendencies among individuals who either have large numbers of short-termpartners or stay in long-term monogamous relationships. An attempt was made to reproduce epidemic curves of reported HIV cases among male homosexuals in Taiwan prior to using the agent-based model to determine the effects of various policies on epidemic dynamics. Results suggest that when suitable adjustments are made based on available social survey statistics, the model accurately simulates real-world behaviors on a large scale.

Tags

Infection Community Small-world networks patterns disease Monte-carlo-simulation Sexual networks Colorado-springs Contacts Prevention