An applied complex systems framework for risk-based decision-making in infrastructure engineering

Authored by C. Gomez, M. Sanchez-Silva, L. Duenas-Osorio

Date Published: 2014

DOI: 10.1016/j.strusafe.2014.03.011

Sponsors: United States National Science Foundation (NSF)

Platforms: No platforms listed

Model Documentation: Other Narrative Pseudocode Mathematical description

Model Code URLs: Model code not found

Abstract

Infrastructure networks are complex, distributed, socio-technical systems whose study requires the integration of several domains of knowledge and techniques to coherently capture key features of their constituent components (e.g., fragility), the dynamics of such networked components, and their behavior as affected by human use and operation. This paper introduces an integrative, applicable framework of Complex Distributed Agent Networks (CoDAN) for infrastructure risk assessment and management. CoDAN detects sub-systems at multiple geographical scales and associates decision units (agents) to them in the context of a decision problem. Agents use advanced optimization and risk assessment methods for decision support, and allow to model decentralized yet coordinated decisions about performance and risk management (e.g., maintenance or restoration), mimicking behavior and system response observed in practice. The application of CoDAN to illustrative examples shows the potential of the framework to unravel the complex evolution of infrastructure network performance under hazard exposure, and to reduce the computational burden of tasks associated to risk assessment and management, as compared to traditional centralized formulations. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Tags

Agent-based model Complex systems Reliability Decision-Making Risk Infrastructure networks Maintenance Multi-scale systems Socio-technical modeling