Effects of temperature on development, survival and reproduction of insects: Experimental design, data analysis and modeling
Authored by Jacques Regniere, James Powell, Barbara Bentz, Vincent Nealis
Date Published: 2012
DOI: 10.1016/j.jinsphys.2012.01.010
Sponsors:
United States Department of Agriculture (USDA)
Rocky Mountain Research Station
Canadian Forest Service
Alberta Sustainable Development Departmen
Platforms:
Statistical Analysis Software (SAS)
Model Documentation:
Other Narrative
Pseudocode
Mathematical description
Model Code URLs:
Model code not found
Abstract
The developmental response of insects to temperature is important in
understanding the ecology of insect life histories.
Temperature-dependent phenology models permit examination of the impacts
of temperature on the geographical distributions, population dynamics
and management of insects. The measurement of insect developmental, survival and reproductive responses to temperature poses practical
challenges because of their modality, variability among individuals and
high mortality near the lower and upper threshold temperatures. We
address this challenge with an integrated approach to the design of
experiments and analysis of data based on maximum likelihood. This
approach expands, simplifies and unifies the analysis of laboratory data
parameterizing the thermal responses of insects in particular and
poikilotherms in general. This approach allows the use of censored
observations (records of surviving individuals that have not completed
development after a certain time) and accommodates observations from
temperature transfer treatments in which individuals pass only a portion
of their development at an extreme (near-threshold) temperature and are
then placed in optimal conditions to complete their development with a
higher rate of survival. Results obtained from this approach are
directly applicable to individual-based modeling of insect development, survival and reproduction with respect to temperature. This approach
makes possible the development of process-based phenology models that
are based on optimal use of available information, and will aid in the
development of powerful tools for analyzing eruptive insect population
behavior and response to changing climatic conditions. Crown Copyright
(C) 2012 Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Tags
Simulation
Spruce budworm
Climate-change
Phenology
Mountain pine-beetle
Metabolic theory
Life-cycles
Choristoneura-fumiferana lepidoptera
Dependent
development
Physiological time