Incorporating climate changes into population dynamic modelling: an individual-based modelling approach for lobster

Authored by Yong Chen, Yuying Zhang, Yi-Jay Chang, Chi-Lu Sun, Su-Zan Yeh

Date Published: 2011

DOI: 10.1139/f10-148

Sponsors: National Science Council of Taiwan

Platforms: No platforms listed

Model Documentation: Other Narrative Flow charts Mathematical description

Model Code URLs: Model code not found

Abstract

One of the most challenging issues in fisheries management is the evaluation of the effects of fishing in the context of a changing environment. Using the pronghorn spiny lobster (Panulirus penicillatus) fishery off the eastern coast of Taiwan as an example, we developed an individual-based model (IBM) that is capable of describing the temperature-dependent life history processes and fishery practices for the spiny lobster. We then used the model to evaluate potential impacts of increased ocean temperature on the estimation of mortality-based biological reference points for fisheries management. We demonstrate that a warming temperature would increase the yield-per-recruit and eggs-per-recruit values and consequently reduce the risk of overexploitation under the current exploitation level. However, there is likely a high risk of overexploitation in the long term if higher temperatures induce extra-high natural mortality. The evaluation of effectiveness of size regulations suggests that increasing minimum legal size is proposed as a good candidate measure to reduce the risk of overexploitation for pessimistically unfavorable environmental conditions. This study suggests that an explicit incorporation of the relationships between environmental variables and biological processes can greatly improve fisheries assessment and management.

Tags

Homarus-americanus Crab callinectes-sapidus Stock assessment Spiny lobster Western rock lobster Panulirus-penicillatus decapoda Biological reference points Per-recruit Estimating growth Cygnus george