Capelin migrations and climate change - a modelling analysis
Authored by Geir Huse, Ingrid Ellingsen
Date Published: 2008
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-007-9347-z
Sponsors:
European Union
Norwegian Research Council (NRF)
Platforms:
No platforms listed
Model Documentation:
Other Narrative
Flow charts
Mathematical description
Model Code URLs:
Model code not found
Abstract
The capelin is a small pelagic fish that performs long distance
migrations. It is a key species in the Barents Sea ecosystem and its
distribution is highly climate dependent. Here we use an individual
based model to investigate consequences of global warming on capelin
distribution and population dynamics. The model relies on input on
physics and plankton from a biophysical ocean model, and the entire life
cycle of capelin including spawning of eggs, larval drift and adult
movement is simulated. Spawning day and adult movement strategies are
adapted by a genetic algorithm. Spawning has to take place in designated
near-shore spawning areas. The output generated by the model is capelin
migration/distribution and population dynamics. We present simulations
with present day climate and a future climate scenario. For the present
climate the model evolves a spatial distribution resembling typical
spatial dynamics of capelin with the coasts of Northern Norway and
Murman as the main spawning areas. For the climate change simulation, the capelin is predicted to shift spawning eastwards and also utilize
new spawning areas along Novaya Zemlya. There is also a shift in the
adult distribution towards the north eastern part of the Barents Sea and
earlier spawning associated with the warming.
Tags
individual-based models
growth
Life-history
Herring clupea-harengus
Marginal ice-zone
Northeast arctic cod
Mallotus-villosus
Pelagic fish
Barents sea capelin
Ecosystem
dynamics