Development of an individual-based model for polioviruses: implications of the selection of network type and outcome metrics

Authored by H Rahmandad, K Hu, R J Duintjer Tebbens, K M Thompson

Date Published: 2011

DOI: 10.1017/s0950268810001676

Sponsors: World Health Organizarion (WHO)

Platforms: No platforms listed

Model Documentation: Other Narrative Flow charts

Model Code URLs: Model code not found

Abstract

We developed an individual-based (IB) model to explore the stochastic attributes of state transitions, the heterogeneity of the individual interactions, and the impact of different network structure choices on the poliovirus transmission process in the context of understanding the dynamics of outbreaks. We used a previously published differential equation-based model to develop the IB model and inputs. To explore the impact of different types of networks, we implemented a total of 26 variations of six different network structures in the IB model. We found that the choice of network structure plays a critical role in the model estimates of cases and the dynamics of outbreaks. This study provides insights about the potential use of an IB model to support policy analyses related to managing the risks of polioviruses and shows the importance of assumptions about network structure.

Tags

Epidemiology Dynamics Outbreaks Pandemic influenza Eradication Infectious-diseases Spread Risk-management Poliomyelitis Polio