Transmission dynamics of oral polio vaccine viruses and vaccine-derived polioviruses on networks

Authored by Jong-Hoon Kim, Seong-Hwan Rho

Date Published: 2015

DOI: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2014.09.026

Sponsors: No sponsors listed

Platforms: No platforms listed

Model Documentation: Other Narrative Mathematical description

Model Code URLs: Model code not found

Abstract

One drawback of oral polio vaccine (OPV) is the potential reversion to more transmissible, virulent circulating vaccine-derived polioviruses (cVDPVs), which may cause outbreaks of paralytic poliomyelitis. Previous modeling studies of the transmission of cVDPVs assume an unrealistic homogeneous mixing of the population and/or ignore that OPV viruses and cVDPVs compete for susceptibles, which we show is a key to understanding the dynamics of the transmission of cVDPVs. We examined the transmission of OPV viruses and cVDPVs on heterogeneous, dynamic contact networks using differential equation-based and individual-based models. Despite the lower transmissibility, OPV viruses may outcompete more transmissible cVDPVs in the short run by spreading extensively before cVDPVs emerge. If viruses become endemic, however, cVDPVs eventually dominate and force OPV viruses to extinction. This study improves our understanding of the emergence of cVDPVs and helps develop more detailed models to plan a policy to control paralytic polio associated with the continued use of OPV in many countries. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Tags

Evolution outbreak Eradication Immunity Follow-up Circulation National immunization days Paralytic poliomyelitis Type-1 Poliovaccine