Timing and severity of immunizing diseases in rabbits is controlled by seasonal matching of host and pathogen dynamics
Authored by Konstans Wells, Barry W Brook, Robert C Lacy, Greg J Mutze, David E Peacock, Ron G Sinclair, Nina Schwensow, Phillip Cassey, Robert B O'Hara, Damien A Fordham
Date Published: 2015
DOI: 10.1098/rsif.2014.1184
Sponsors:
Australian Research Council (ARC)
United States National Science Foundation (NSF)
Platforms:
VORTEX
Model Documentation:
Other Narrative
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Mathematical description
Model Code URLs:
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Abstract
Infectious diseases can exert a strong influence on the dynamics of host
populations, but it remains unclear why such disease-mediated control
only occurs under particular environmental conditions. We used 16 years
of detailed field data on invasive European rabbits (Oryctolagus
cuniculus) in Australia, linked to individual-based stochastic models
and Bayesian approximations, to test whether (i) mortality associated
with rabbit haemorrhagic disease (RHD) is driven primarily by seasonal
matches/mismatches between demographic rates and epidemiological
dynamics and (ii) delayed infection (arising from insusceptibility and
maternal antibodies in juveniles) are important factors in determining
disease severity and local population persistence of rabbits. We found
that both the timing of reproduction and exposure to viruses drove
recurrent seasonal epidemics of RHD. Protection conferred by
insusceptibility and maternal antibodies controlled seasonal disease
outbreaks by delaying infection; this could have also allowed escape
from disease. The persistence of local populations was a stochastic
outcome of recovery rates from both RHD and myxomatosis. If
susceptibility to RHD is delayed, myxomatosis will have a pronounced
effect on population extirpation when the two viruses coexist. This has
important implications for wildlife management, because it is likely
that such seasonal interplay and disease dynamics has a strong effect on
long-term population viability for many species.
Tags
Infectious-diseases
Population-dynamics
Approximate bayesian computation
Biological-control
Hemorrhagic-disease
Oryctolagus-cuniculus
Maternal antibodies
European rabbit
Myxoma virus
Wild rabbits