Simulated Effects of the Location of High-Speed Rail Stations on Land Development Case Study of the Lisbon Metropolitan Area, Portugal
Authored by Yu Shen, Luis Miguel Martinez, Guineng Chen, Abreu e Silva Joao de
Date Published: 2016
DOI: 10.3141/2564-14
Sponsors:
Portuguese National Research Fund
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Abstract
This paper studies the effects of high-speed rail (HSR) on land cover
change in the Lisbon metropolitan area (LMA) in Portugal according to a
bilevel cellular automata/agent-based modeling framework. The model
incorporates spatial mixed logit models at the local level and panel
simultaneous equations models at the regional level. The regional
submodel generates socioeconomic activities that are input into the
local submodel for land development. The regional activities are also
influenced by the local outputs. A backcasting simulation is executed to
validate the model on the basis of the actual land cover change from
1991 to 2011. Five scenarios are then designed according to the numbers
and the locations of HSR stations in the LMA. The simulation shows that
the unbuilt land covers are largely developed by 2031, regardless of the
inauguration of HSR. Under the scenarios with HSR, because of the
dramatic improvement of accessibility, the land cover change speed is
largely accelerated. With an additional station on the southern bank of
the Tagus River, the overall accessibility does not further increase
from the scenario with only one HSR station. Thus, the total land
development remains similar. The enhanced access to the HSR service from
the additional station contributes to the redistribution of the land
cover change activities by moving them slightly southeastward. The
results highlight the effect that station location could have on land
cover change, pointing out the importance of carefully choosing the
location.
Tags
Model
Impacts
Train
Transport
Cost-benefit-analysis
Spain
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