How Initial Prevalence Moderates Network-based Smoking Change: Estimating Contextual Effects with Stochastic Actor-based Models

Authored by Jimi Adams, David R Schaefer

Date Published: 2016

DOI: 10.1177/0022146515627848

Sponsors: Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (NICHD) National Institute of Minority Health and Health Disparities

Platforms: No platforms listed

Model Documentation: Other Narrative

Model Code URLs: Model code not found

Abstract

We use an empirically grounded simulation model to examine how initial smoking prevalence moderates the effectiveness of potential interventions designed to change adolescent smoking behavior. Our model investigates the differences that result when manipulating peer influence and smoker popularity as intervention levers. We demonstrate how a simulation-based approach allows us to estimate outcomes that arise (1) when intervention effects could plausibly alter peer influence and/or smoker popularity effects and (2) across a sample of schools that match the range of initial conditions of smoking prevalence in U.S. schools. We show how these different initial conditions combined with the exact same intervention effects can produce substantially different outcomesfor example, effects that produce smoking declines in some settings can actually increase smoking in others. We explore the form and magnitude of these differences. Our model also provides a template to evaluate the potential effects of alternative intervention scenarios.

Tags

Social Network systems science opinion leaders United-states Public-health Adolescent cigarette-smoking Prevention program Randomized-trial Peer influence Follow-up