From individuals to population cycles: the role of extrinsic and intrinsic factors in rodent populations
Authored by Viktoriia Radchuk, Rolf A Ims, Harry P Andreassen
Date Published: 2016
DOI: 10.1890/15-0756.1
Sponsors:
Norwegian Research Council (NRF)
Platforms:
NetLogo
Model Documentation:
ODD
Flow charts
Mathematical description
Model Code URLs:
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/store/10.1890/15-0756.1/asset/supinfo/ecy1272-sup-0005-DataS1.zip?v=1&s=bb9aa027d93ee385411d0546413e1c17ac6144f4
Abstract
Rodent population cycles have fascinated scientists for a long time.
Among various hypotheses, an interaction of an extrinsic factor
(predation) with intrinsic factors (e.g., sociality and dispersal) was
suggested to lead to the generation of population cycles. Here, we
tested this hypothesis with an individual-based model fully
parameterized with an exceptionally rich empirical database on vole life
histories. We employed a full factorial design that included models with
the following factors: predation only, predation and sociality, predation and dispersal, and predation and both sociality and dispersal.
A comprehensive set of metrics was used to compare results of these four
models with the long-term population dynamics of natural vole
populations. Only the full model, which included both intrinsic factors
and predation, yielded cycle periods, amplitudes, and autumn population
sizes closest to those observed in nature. Our approach allows to model, as emergent properties of individual life histories, the sort of
nonlinear density- and phase-dependence that is expected to destabilize
population dynamics. We suggest that the individual-based approach is
useful for addressing the effects of other mechanisms on rodent
populations that operate at finer temporal and spatial scales than have
been explored with models sofar.
Tags
Agent-based models
Habitat fragmentation
Sensitivity-analysis
Vole microtus-oeconomus
Weasels mustela-nivalis
Space-use responses
Root vole
Small mammals
Specialist predators
Density-dependence