A Comparison of Dynamics in Two Models for the Spread of a Vector-Borne Disease
Authored by K Graesboll, T Sumner, C Enoe, L E Christiansen, S Gubbins
Date Published: 2016
DOI: 10.1111/tbed.12249
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Abstract
In 2007, bluetongue virus (BTV) was introduced to both Denmark (DK) and
the United Kingdom (UK). For this reason, simulation models were built
to predict scenarios for future incursions. The DK and UK models have a
common description of within-herd dynamics, but differ greatly in their
descriptions of between-herd spread, one using an explicit
representation of vector dispersal, the other a transmission kernel.
Here, we compare model predictions for the dynamics of bluetongue in the
UK, based on the 2007 incursion and vaccination rollout in 2008. We
demonstrate how an agent-based model shows greater sensitivity to the
level of vaccine uptake and has lower variability compared with a
kernel-based model. However, a model using a transmission kernel
requires less detailed data and is often faster.
Tags
Risk
transmission
Vaccination
Mouth-disease
Great-britain
Europe
Bluetongue virus
Wind
Farms