Three experiments: The exploration of unknown unknowns in foresight
Authored by Leena Ilmola, Elena Rovenskaya
Date Published: 2016
DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2015.12.015
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Platforms:
AnyLogic
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Abstract
Emerging uncertainties present a challenge to decision making. On the
basis of a review of existing scenario methods, we examine how
ontological uncertainty, that is, the situation in which we do not know
what we do not know, is included in scenario processes. We present three
experimental foresight methods applicable for cases dominated by
uncertainty; structural scenarios, shock scenarios and action portfolio
and Agent-Based Modeling. The main finding of our experiment is that in
order to address uncertainty, we have to relax the plausibility
requirements and focus the analysis on futures that are perceived to be
non-probable. In this way we are able to challenge existing perceptions
and multiply the number of mental models of the futures. (C) 2016
Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Tags
Uncertainty
Innovation
Decision-Making
resilience
Methodology
Scenarios
Organization
Future
Causal layered analysis
Strategic foresight