Quantitative Agent Based Model of Opinion Dynamics: Polish Elections of 2015

Authored by Pawel Sobkowicz

Date Published: 2016

DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0155098

Sponsors: No sponsors listed

Platforms: Fortran

Model Documentation: Other Narrative Flow charts

Model Code URLs: https://osf.io/bqj8r/

Abstract

We present results of an abstract, agent based model of opinion dynamics simulations based on the emotion/information/opinion (E/I/O) approach, applied to a strongly polarized society, corresponding to the Polish political scene between 2005 and 2015. Under certain conditions the model leads to metastable coexistence of two subcommunities of comparable size (supporting the corresponding opinions)- which corresponds to the bipartisan split found in Poland. Spurred by the recent breakdown of this political duopoly, which occurred in 2015, we present a model extension that describes both the long term coexistence of the two opposing opinions and a rapid, transitory change due to the appearance of a third party alternative. We provide quantitative comparison of the model with the results of polls and elections in Poland, testing the assumptions related to the modeled processes and the parameters used in the simulations. It is shown, that when the propaganda messages of the two incumbent parties differ in emotional tone, the political status quo may be unstable. The asymmetry of the emotions within the support bases of the two parties allows one of them to be `invaded' by a newcomer third party very quickly, while the second remains immune to such invasion.

Tags

bounded confidence Social-psychology Phase-transitions Presidential-election Catastrophe-theory Sznajd model Voter model Selective exposure Consensus model Negativity bias