Revising the Human Development Sequence Theory Using an Agent-Based Approach and Data

Authored by Viktoria Spaiser, David J T Sumpter

Date Published: 2016

DOI: 10.18564/jasss.3084

Sponsors: No sponsors listed

Platforms: MATLAB

Model Documentation: Other Narrative Pseudocode Mathematical description

Model Code URLs: Model code not found

Abstract

Agent-based models and computer simulations are promising tools for studying emergent macrophenomena. We apply an agent-based approach in combination with data analysis to investigate the human development sequence (HDS) theory developed by Ronald Inglehart and Christian Welzel. Although the HDS theory is supported by correlational evidence, the sequence of economic growth, democracy and emancipation stated by the theory is not entirely consistent with data. We use an agent-based model to make quantitative predictions about several different micro-level mechanisms. Comparison to data allows us to identify important inconsistencies between HDS and the data, and propose revised agent-based models that modify the theory. Our results indicate the importance of elites and economic inequality in explaining the data available on democratisation.
Tags
Transitions democracy diffusion Inequality Power values context democratization Sociology