Simulating changes in tourism demand: a case study of two German regions
Authored by Juergen Schmude, Christine Reintinger, Anja Berghammer
Date Published: 2016
DOI: 10.1080/14616688.2016.1169312
Sponsors:
German Research Foundation (Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft, DFG)
Platforms:
No platforms listed
Model Documentation:
Other Narrative
Flow charts
Model Code URLs:
Model code not found
Abstract
Travel behaviour is shaped by the complex interaction of a variety of
societal, economic, ecological and political drivers that undergo rapid
changes. This poses continually new challenges on destinations which
need to adapt to altering conditions. Significant changes of influencing
factors might lead to shifts in tourism flows in temporal and/or spatial
dimensions. This study investigates how German tourists' destination
choices develop under changing framework conditions. It furthermore
rates the impact of influencing factors such as socio-demographic and
socio-economic aspects on changes in tourism demand using an agent-based
model. The interactions among 15 million tourists and 109 European
destinations are simulated under three different scenarios. Destinations
included in the model develop in different ways in regard to tourist
arrivals until 2030. The results indicate that the number of tourist
arrivals will develop divergently in the investigated regions until 2030
and that some market segments will undergo changes in seasonality: the
model shows a growth in arrivals for many city destinations, cultural as
well as sports and active tourism destinations. It indicates a trend
towards equalisation in the segments sun and sea tourism, city and
cultural tourism with a shift from summer months to spring and autumn
towards 2030. They furthermore imply that demographic change dominates
altering tourism demand in the source market and that related changes in
travel preferences are the most urgent challenge for destinations.
Tags
Adaptation
Agent-based models
Scenarios
Climate-change
Impact
Future
Destination
Complex
Economic-crisis
Flows