Methods for translating narrative scenarios into quantitative assessments of land use change

Authored by Arika Ligmann-Zielinska, Varun Rao Mallampalli, Georgia Mavrommati, Jonathan Thompson, Matthew Duveneck, Spencer Meyer, Caroline Gottschalk Druschke, Kristen Hychka, Melissa A Kenney, Kasper Kok, Mark E Borsuk

Date Published: 2016

DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2016,04.011

Sponsors: Scenarios Society and Solutions Research Coordination Network

Platforms: No platforms listed

Model Documentation: Other Narrative Flow charts Mathematical description

Model Code URLs: Model code not found

Abstract

In the land use and land cover (LULC) literature, narrative scenarios are qualitative descriptions of plausible futures associated with a combination of socio-economic, policy, technological, and climate changes. LULC models are then often used to translate these narrative descriptions into quantitative characterizations of possible future societal and ecological impacts and conditions. To respect the intent of the underlying scenario descriptions, this process of translation needs to be thoughtful, transparent, and reproducible. This paper evaluates the current state of the art in scenario translation methods and outlines their relative advantages and disadvantages, as well as the respective roles of stakeholders and subject matter experts. We summarize our findings in the form of a decision matrix that can assist land use planners, scientists, and modelers in choosing a translation method appropriate to their situation. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Tags

Management Decision-Making Role-Playing Game stakeholder involvement United-states Climate-change Cover change Bayesian belief networks Fuzzy cognitive maps Natural-resources