Methods for translating narrative scenarios into quantitative assessments of land use change
Authored by Arika Ligmann-Zielinska, Varun Rao Mallampalli, Georgia Mavrommati, Jonathan Thompson, Matthew Duveneck, Spencer Meyer, Caroline Gottschalk Druschke, Kristen Hychka, Melissa A Kenney, Kasper Kok, Mark E Borsuk
Date Published: 2016
DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2016,04.011
Sponsors:
Scenarios Society and Solutions Research Coordination Network
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Model Documentation:
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Abstract
In the land use and land cover (LULC) literature, narrative scenarios
are qualitative descriptions of plausible futures associated with a
combination of socio-economic, policy, technological, and climate
changes. LULC models are then often used to translate these narrative
descriptions into quantitative characterizations of possible future
societal and ecological impacts and conditions. To respect the intent of
the underlying scenario descriptions, this process of translation needs
to be thoughtful, transparent, and reproducible. This paper evaluates
the current state of the art in scenario translation methods and
outlines their relative advantages and disadvantages, as well as the
respective roles of stakeholders and subject matter experts. We
summarize our findings in the form of a decision matrix that can assist
land use planners, scientists, and modelers in choosing a translation
method appropriate to their situation. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights
reserved.
Tags
Management
Decision-Making
Role-Playing Game
stakeholder involvement
United-states
Climate-change
Cover change
Bayesian belief networks
Fuzzy cognitive maps
Natural-resources