Analyzing crime displacement with a simulation approach

Authored by Ninghua Wang, Lin Liu, John E. Eck

Date Published: 2014

DOI: 10.1068/b37120

Sponsors: No sponsors listed

Platforms: No platforms listed

Model Documentation: Other Narrative

Model Code URLs: Model code not found

Abstract

Crime tends to cluster in small areas. Police have taken advantage of this by identifying these `hotspots' of crime and concentrating their resources in these locations. This practice has shown evidence of reducing crime in the hotspot area. While it is possible that the benefits of such reduction might be diffused to the surrounding areas, one criticism of this practice is that the crime in the hotspot may also be displaced to the surrounding areas. A number of empirical studies have investigated the spatial pattern of crime displacement. However, few have attempted to uncover the mechanisms that lead to the displacement of crime. In this paper we present a theory-driven approach that applies agent-based modeling to simulate the mechanism of crime and policing. The processes that drive possible displacement of crime are investigated through experiments in a computational laboratory-SPACES. Our results reveal that crime cannot be displaced easily because opportunities for crime are limited in low-crime areas and offenders are often attached to the area where they perform their routine activities.

Tags

Agent-based modeling SPACES crime displacement crime simulation hotspot policing