Climate shocks and migration: an agent-based modeling approach

Authored by Yothin Sawangdee, Xiaozheng Yao, Barbara Entwisle, George P Malanson, Stephen J Walsh, Nathalie E Williams, Ashton M Verdery, Ronald R Rindfuss, Peter J Mucha, Brian G Frizzelle, Philip M McDaniel, Benjamin W Heumann, Pramote Prasartkul, Aree Jampaklay

Date Published: 2016

DOI: 10.1007/s11111-016-0254-y

Sponsors: United States National Institutes of Health (NIH) United States National Science Foundation (NSF)

Platforms: No platforms listed

Model Documentation: Other Narrative Flow charts

Model Code URLs: Model code not found

Abstract

This is a study of migration responses to climate shocks. We construct an agent-based model that incorporates dynamic linkages between demographic behaviors, such as migration, marriage, and births, and agriculture and land use, which depend on rainfall patterns. The rules and parameterization of our model are empirically derived from qualitative and quantitative analyses of a well-studied demographic field site, Nang Rong district, northeast Thailand. With this model, we simulate patterns of migration under four weather regimes in a rice economy: (1) a reference, ``normal{''} scenario; (2) 7 years of unusually wet weather; (3) 7 years of unusually dry weather; and (4) 7 years of extremely variable weather. Results show relatively small impacts on migration. Experiments with the model show that existing high migration rates and strong selection factors, which are unaffected by climate change, are likely responsible for the weak migration response.

Tags

Decision-Making Burkina-faso Population mobility International migration Nang-rong Relative deprivation Developed-countries Labor migration Out-migration Social ties