Assessing historical reliability of the agent-based model of the global energy system
Authored by Tieju Ma, Jiangjiang Zhao, Anna Shchiptsova, Arnulf Grubler, Arkady Kryazhimskiy
Date Published: 2016
DOI: 10.1007/s11518-016-5303-7
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Mathematical description
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Abstract
This study looks at the historical reliability of the agent-based model
of the global energy system. We present a mathematical framework for the
agent-based model calibration and sensitivity analysis based on
historical observations. Simulation consistency with the historical
record is measured as a distance between two vectors of data points and
inference on parameter values is done from the probability distribution
of this stochastic estimate. Proposed methodology is applied to the
model of the global energy system. Some model properties and limitations
followed from calibration results are discussed.
Tags
behavior
Coevolution
Verification
Validation
Simulation-models