Food security in the face of climate change: Adaptive capacity of small-scale social-ecological systems to environmental variability
Authored by Marco A Janssen, Irene Perez, John M Anderies
Date Published: 2016
DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.07.005
Sponsors:
United States National Science Foundation (NSF)
Platforms:
NetLogo
Model Documentation:
ODD
Model Code URLs:
https://www.comses.net/codebases/3580/releases/1.0.0/
Abstract
Improving the adaptive capacity of small-scale irrigation systems to the
impacts of climate change is crucial for food security in Asia. This
study analyzes the capacity of small-scale irrigation systems dependent
on the Asian monsoon to adapt to variability in river discharge caused
by climate change. Our study is motivated by the Pumpa irrigation
system, a small-scale irrigation system located in Nepal that is a model
for this type of system. We developed an agent-based model in which we
simulated the decisions farmers make about the irrigation strategy to
use according to available water flow. Given the uncertainty associated
with how climate change may affect the Asian monsoon, we simulated the
performance of the system under different projections of climate change
in the region (increase and decrease in rainfall, reduction and
expansion of the monsoon season, and changes in the timing of the onset
of the monsoon). Accordingly to our simulations, farmers might need to
adapt to rainfall intensification and a late onset in the monsoon
season. The demands for collective action among farmers (e.g.
infrastructure repair, meetings, decisions, etc.) might increase
considerably due to climate change. Although our model suggests that
investment in new infrastructure might increase the performance of the
system under some climate change scenarios, the high inequality among
farmers when water availability is reduced might hinder the efficiency
of these measures due to a reduction of farmers' willingness to
cooperate. Our modeling exercise helps to hypothesize about the most
sensitive climate change scenarios for smallscale irrigation farming in
Nepal and helps to frame a discussion of some possible solutions and
fundamental trade-offs in the process of adaptation to improve for food
and water security under climate change. (C) 2016 Published by Elsevier
Ltd.
Tags
Agent-based models
Protocol
Asian summer monsoon
Nepal