MADness in the method: On the volatility and irregularity of technology diffusion

Authored by Peter Bodo

Date Published: 2016

DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2016.05.011

Sponsors: Research Reassigned Time

Platforms: NetLogo

Model Documentation: Other Narrative

Model Code URLs: http://ccl.northwestern.edu/netlogo/models/community/Technology%20diffusion%20ABM

Abstract

The paper investigates how some drivers of technology diffusion shape the volatility and irregularity of the diffusion process. It presents an agent-based simulation model of technology diffusion that includes variables to control technology generations, social pressures, market size, and network randomness. Several variable combinations are defined, technology diffusions are simulated, and the volatility and irregularity of the process are measured. The paper explores scenarios with unusually high volatility and/or irregularity in more detail. It shows that technology generations mostly affect volatility, social pressures impact irregularity, while network randomness and market size amplify the other two factors' effects. Also, the paper argues that market structure changes generated by the factor combinations in question indirectly affect diffusion volatility and irregularity and these indirect effects may explain very high levels of, and unexpected changes in the volatility and irregularity of the technology diffusion process. (C) 2016 Elsevier Inc All.rights reserved.

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agent-based simulation Innovation Model Products