Modeling the Effects of E-cigarettes on Smoking Behavior Implications for Future Adult Smoking Prevalence

Authored by Sarah T Cherng, Jamie Tam, Paul J Christine, Rafael Meza

Date Published: 2016

DOI: 10.1097/ede.0000000000000497

Sponsors: No sponsors listed

Platforms: Python

Model Documentation: Other Narrative Flow charts Pseudocode Mathematical description

Model Code URLs: Model code not found

Abstract

Background: Electronic cigarette (e-cigarette) use has increased rapidly in recent years. Given the unknown effects of e-cigarette use on cigarette smoking behaviors, e-cigarette regulation has become the subject of considerable controversy. In the absence of longitudinal data documenting the long-term effects of e-cigarette use on smoking behavior and population smoking outcomes, computational models can guide future empirical research and provide insights into the possible effects of e-cigarette use on smoking prevalence over time. Methods: Agent-based model examining hypothetical scenarios of e-cigarette use by smoking status and e-cigarette effects on smoking initiation and smoking cessation. Results: If e-cigarettes increase individual-level smoking cessation probabilities by 20\%, the model estimates a 6\% reduction in smoking prevalence by 2060 compared with baseline model (no effects) outcomes. In contrast, e-cigarette use prevalence among never smokers would have to rise dramatically from current estimates, with e-cigarettes increasing smoking initiation by more than 200\% relative to baseline model estimates to achieve a corresponding 6\% increase in smoking prevalence by 2060. Conclusions: Based on current knowledge of the patterns of e-cigarette use by smoking status and the heavy concentration of e-cigarette use among current smokers, the simulated effects of e-cigarettes on smoking cessation generate substantially larger changes to smoking prevalence compared with their effects on smoking initiation.

Tags

health cessation United-states Electronic cigarettes