Individual-based models in the analysis of disease transmission in plant production chains: An application to potato brown rot
Authored by Annemarie Breukers, Dirk L Kettenis, Monique Mourits, der Werf Wopke van, Alfons Oude Lansink
Date Published: 2006
DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2005.12.001
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Abstract
Spread of plant disease in production chains of planting material is a
process of great economic importance, but has received little attention
from plant disease epidemiologists. Disease control in production chains
is therefore often based on rules of thumb and expert judgement by
regulatory bodies, rather than on an explicit analysis and evaluation of
the epidemiological and economic consequences of alternative strategies.
This paper puts forward the idea that individual-based models may be
used as a framework to simulate the spread of disease-causing organisms
in plant production chains. The ``individuals{''} in this context are
the trading units (e.g., batches, lots) of a production chain. The
quarantine disease ``potato brown rot{''}, caused by the bacterium
Ralstonia solanacearum, is used as an illustrative example. The model
simulates the spread of potato brown rot over all potato growing farms
and fields in the Netherlands over a chosen time frame. It addresses the
relevant infection pathways for this disease in potato production and is
spatially explicit.
Model outputs of simulations based on the control strategy as applied in
the Netherlands until 2004 are presented. The effects of minor
adjustments to this strategy are investigated. The simulations show an
irregular pattern of brown rot dynamics in the potato production chain, as is observed in practice. Simulations quantify the relative importance
of different infection pathways, and elucidate the effect of testing
frequency on these pathways and on the overall brown rot incidence. The
study shows that individual-based modelling (IBM) provides a powerful
platform for modelling the epidemiology and impact of diseases in plant
production chains. IBM can be effectively used for the analysis, evaluation and design of cost-effective disease management policies. (c)
2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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