Dynamics of Voting Propensity: Experimental Tests of Adaptive Learning Models
Authored by Susumu Shikano, Bernhard Kittel
Date Published: 2016
DOI: 10.1177/1065912916663654
Sponsors:
Lower Saxony Ministry of Science and Culture
Hanse Institute for Advanced Study (HWK)
Platforms:
No platforms listed
Model Documentation:
Other Narrative
Mathematical description
Model Code URLs:
Model code not found
Abstract
This paper aims to deliver experimental evidence on the dispute between
two behavioral models of electoral turnout. Both models share the idea
that the subjects' voting propensities are updated from their past
propensities, aspirations, and realized payoffs. However, they differ in
the exact specification of the feedback mechanism. The first model has a
strong feedback mechanism toward 50 percent, while the other has only
moderate feedback. This difference leads to two distinct distributions
of voter types: the first model generates more casual voters who vote
and abstain from time to time. The latter generates more habitual voting
behavior. Thus far, the latter model seemed to be better supported
empirically because survey data reveal more habitual voters and
abstainers than casual voters. Given that the two models differ in their
propensity updating mechanism in dynamic processes, a more direct test
of their assumptions as well as implications with survey data is still
pending. We designed a laboratory experiment in which subjects
repeatedly make turnout and voting decisions. The result from
experimental data is mixed, but more supportive of the second model with
habitual voters and abstainers.
Tags
Uncertainty
Participation
Voter turnout
elections
Paradox
Calculus
Social desirability
Response validity
Habit-formation
Bias