Simulating the elimination of sleeping sickness with an agent-based model
Authored by Francois Bousquet, Pascal Grebaut, Killian Girardin, Valentine Federico
Date Published: 2016
DOI: 10.1051/parasite/2016066
Sponsors:
No sponsors listed
Platforms:
CORMAS
Model Documentation:
ODD
Flow charts
Model Code URLs:
Model code not found
Abstract
Although Human African Trypanosomiasis is largely considered to be in
the process of extinction today, the persistence of human and animal
reservoirs, as well as the vector, necessitates a laborious elimination
process. In this context, modeling could be an effective tool to
evaluate the ability of different public health interventions to control
the disease. Using the Cormas (R) system, we developed HATSim, an
agent-based model capable of simulating the possible endemic evolutions
of sleeping sickness and the ability of National Control Programs to
eliminate the disease. This model takes into account the analysis of
epidemiological, entomological, and ecological data from field studies
conducted during the last decade, making it possible to predict the
evolution of the disease within this area over a 5- year span. In this
article, we first present HATSim according to the Overview, Design
concepts, and Details (ODD) protocol that is classically used to
describe agent-based models, then, in a second part, we present
predictive results concerning the evolution of Human African
Trypanosomiasis in the village of Lambi (Cameroon), in order to
illustrate the interest of such a tool. Our results are consistent with
what was observed in the field by the Cameroonian National Control
Program (CNCP). Our simulations also revealed that regular screening can
be sufficient, although vector control applied to all areas with human
activities could be significantly more efficient. Our results indicate
that the current model can already help decision-makers in planning the
elimination of the disease in foci.
Tags
Identification
Forest
Trypanosoma-brucei-gambiense
Southern cameroon
Bipindi focus