Modeling antibiotic resistance in hospitals: The impact of minimizing treatment duration

Authored by Erika M C D'Agata, Pierre Magal, Shigui Ruan, Glenn F Webb, Damien Olivier

Date Published: 2007

DOI: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2007.08.011

Sponsors: No sponsors listed

Platforms: No platforms listed

Model Documentation: Other Narrative Flow charts Mathematical description

Model Code URLs: Model code not found

Abstract

Infections caused by antibiotic-resistant pathogens are a global public health problem. Numerous individual- and population-level factors contribute to the emergence and spread of these pathogens. An individual-based model (IBM), formulated as a system of stochastically determined events, was developed to describe the complexities of the transmission dynamics of antibiotic-resistant bacteria. To simplify the interpretation and application of the model's conclusions, a corresponding deterministic model was created, which describes the average behavior of the IBM over a large number of simulations. The integration of these two model systems provides a quantitative analysis of the emergence and spread of antibiotic-resistant bacteria, and demonstrates that early initiation of treatment and minimization of its duration mitigates antibiotic resistance epidemics in hospitals. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Tags

Transmission dynamics Mathematical-model Interventions Therapy Gastrointestinal colonization Randomized-trial Intensive-care-unit Staphylococcus-aureus Enterococci Infection-control