Modeling Individual Vulnerability to Communicable Diseases: A Framework and Design
Authored by Liang Mao, Ling Bian, Yuxia Huang, Eunjung Lim, Gyoungju Lee, Yan Yang, Murray Cohen, Deborah Wilson
Date Published: 2012
DOI: 10.1080/00045608.2012.674844
Sponsors:
Department of Health and Human Services
Platforms:
No platforms listed
Model Documentation:
Other Narrative
Model Code URLs:
Model code not found
Abstract
Reports on dangerous communicable diseases, such as severe acute
respiratory syndrome (SARS) and H1N1 flu, have repeatedly stressed the
importance of individuals in disease transmission. Still in its infancy, individual-based modeling faces many challenges. From the perspective of
modeling approaches, this article explores (1) the framework of a
three-population (daytime, nighttime, and pastime population) and
two-scale (local and societal scale) social network; (2) a design that
can represent heterogeneous, mobile, interacting individuals and their
individualized vulnerability to infection; and (3) a simulation of
individuals' vulnerability to influenza in an urban area in the
Northeastern United States to illustrate the proposed framework and
design. Simulation results correspond well to the reported epidemic
information. The findings offer a valuable platform to devise
much-needed spatially and temporally oriented control and intervention
strategies for communicable diseases.
Tags
Influenza
time
transmission
Infectious-disease