DAMS: A Model to Assess Domino Effects by Using Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation

Authored by Laobing Zhang, Gabriele Landucci, Genserik Reniers, Nima Khakzad, Jianfeng Zhou

Date Published: 2018

DOI: 10.1111/risa.12955

Sponsors: Chinese National Natural Science Foundation

Platforms: AnyLogic

Model Documentation: Other Narrative Flow charts

Model Code URLs: Model code not found

Abstract

Historical data analysis shows that escalation accidents, so-called domino effects, have an important role in disastrous accidents in the chemical and process industries. In this study, an agent-based modeling and simulation approach is proposed to study the propagation of domino effects in the chemical and process industries. Different from the analytical or Monte Carlo simulation approaches, which normally study the domino effect at probabilistic network levels, the agent-based modeling technique explains the domino effects from a bottom-up perspective. In this approach, the installations involved in a domino effect are modeled as agents whereas the interactions among the installations (e.g., by means of heat radiation) are modeled via the basic rules of the agents. Application of the developed model to several case studies demonstrates the ability of the model not only in modeling higher-level domino effects and synergistic effects but also in accounting for temporal dependencies. The model can readily be applied to large-scale complicated cases.
Tags
Agent-based modeling vulnerability networks Computational experiments Prevention Hazard Quantitative assessment Domino effect Major accident hazard User-friendly software Process plants Fragment projection