A novel approach for estimating densities of secretive species from road-survey and spatial-movement data

Authored by John A Willson, Shannon E Pittman, Jeffrey C Beane, Tracey A Tuberville

Date Published: 2018

DOI: 10.1071/wr16175

Sponsors: United States Department of Energy (DOE)

Platforms: No platforms listed

Model Documentation: Other Narrative Mathematical description

Model Code URLs: Model code not found

Abstract

Context. Accurate estimates of population density are a critical component of effective wildlife conservation and management. However, many snake species are so secretive that their density cannot be determined using traditional methods such as capture-mark-recapture. Thus, the status of most terrestrial snake populations remains completely unknown. Aim. We developed a novel simulation-based technique for estimating density of secretive snakes that combined behavioural observations of snake road-crossing behaviour (crossing speed), effort-corrected road-survey data, and simulations of spatial movement patterns derived from radio-telemetry, without relying on mark recapture. Methods. We used radio-telemetry data to parameterise individual-based movement models that estimate the frequency with which individual snakes cross roads and used information on survey vehicle speed and snake crossing speed to determine the probability of detecting a snake, given that it crosses the road transect during a survey. Snake encounter frequencies during systematic road surveys were then interpreted in light of detection probabilities and simulation model results to estimate snake densities and to assess various factors likely to affect abundance estimates. We demonstrated the broad applicability of this approach through a case study of the imperiled southern hognose snake (Heterodon simus) in the North Carolina (USA) Sandhills. Key results. We estimated that H. simus occurs at average densities of 0.17 ha(-1) in the North Carolina Sandhills and explored the sensitivity of this estimate to assumptions and variation in model parameters. Conclusions. Our novel method allowed us to generate the first abundance estimates for H. simus. We found that H. simus exists at low densities relative to congeners and other mid-sized snake species, raising concern that this species may not only have declined in geographic range, but may also occur at low densities or be declining in their strongholds, such as the North Carolina Sandhills.

Tags

Individual-based model Animal movement patterns behaviour Landscapes Home ranges Random-walks Abundance estimation Heterodon simus Method Radio-telemetry Southern hognose snake Snake Edges Common