Predicting the trajectory of the evolving international cyber regime: Simulating the growth of a social network

Authored by Todd C Lehmann, James A Rolfsen, Terry D Clark

Date Published: 2015

DOI: 10.1016/j.socnet.2015.01.002

Sponsors: No sponsors listed

Platforms: R RSiena

Model Documentation: Other Narrative Mathematical description

Model Code URLs: Model code not found

Abstract

This paper presents an agent-based model of regime growth. States and the relations comprising a regime are conceptualized as social networks. Regime growth is understood as the addition of ties between states as they agree to work with one another. These ties are added as a result of the interaction between state behavior and the structure of their relations. We apply the model to the emerging cyber security regime. Based on reasonable assumptions of the nature of the current international system, the model predicts a bi-polar structure pitting two distinct blocs led by the two states with the greatest capacity to conduct cyber conflict. However, if states either place increasing emphasis on the benefits of trade or if the more materially powerful seek greater cooperation among themselves, linkages will develop across the two blocs. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Tags

Cooperation selection conflict Coevolution Collective Action Constructivism interdependence Politics Intergovernmental organizations Alliances