The feasibility of implementing an ecological network in The Netherlands under conditions of global change
Authored by Mark DA Rounsevell, Shah Jamal Alam, Dijk Jerry van, Martha Bakker, Teun Spek, den Brink Adri van
Date Published: 2015
DOI: 10.1007/s10980-014-0145-5
Sponsors:
Knowledge for Climate Programme
Platforms:
No platforms listed
Model Documentation:
Other Narrative
Model Code URLs:
Model code not found
Abstract
Both global change and policy reform will affect the implementation of
the National Ecological Network (NEN) in the Netherlands. Global change
refers to a combination of changing groundwater tables arising from
climate change and improved economic prospects for farming. Policy
reform refers to the abolition of an intermediary organization that
organizes land trades with the support of a national land bank.
In this paper we evaluate the effects of these factors on future land
acquisition for the NEN.
We applied an agent-based model of the land market based on sales and
purchases between farmers and nature-conservation organizations
(establishing the NEN) within a case study area.
Our results demonstrate that future land acquisitions for the NEN are
constrained by strong competition for land from farmers due to improved
economic prospects for farming. Effects of climate change are that fewer
parcels will be sold from farmers to nature-conservation organizations
in a dry scenario as compared to a wet scenario. An important constraint
for land acquisitions is the low willingness to pay (WTP) for land by
nature-conservation organizations. We demonstrate that higher WTP
increases land purchases considerably. However, the spatial pattern of
land acquisition is fragmented, which may undermine its effectiveness
from a restoration perspective.
The combination of these processes leads to land acquisitions for the
NEN that do not meet the initially-stated policy objectives by far. In
addition, the abolition of a land-trade organization supported by a land
bank leads to more fragmented pattern of nature reserves.
Tags
Policy
Climate-change
Landscapes
Socioeconomic scenarios