Integrating Evolution into Ecological Modelling: Accommodating Phenotypic Changes in Agent Based Models

Authored by Aristides Moustakas, Matthew R. Evans

Date Published: 2013-08-05

DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0071125

Sponsors: No sponsors listed

Platforms: .NET

Model Documentation: ODD Mathematical description

Model Code URLs: Model code not found

Abstract

Evolutionary change is a characteristic of living organisms and forms one of the ways in which species adapt to changed conditions. However, most ecological models do not incorporate this ubiquitous phenomenon. We have developed a model that takes a `phenotypic gambit' approach and focuses on changes in the frequency of phenotypes (which differ in timing of breeding and fecundity) within a population, using, as an example, seasonal breeding. Fitness per phenotype calculated as the individual's contribution to population growth on an annual basis coincide with the population dynamics per phenotype. Simplified model variants were explored to examine whether the complexity included in the model is justified. Outputs from the spatially implicit model underestimated the number of individuals across all phenotypes. When no phenotype transitions are included (i.e. offspring always inherit their parent's phenotype) numbers of all individuals are always underestimated. We conclude that by using a phenotypic gambit approach evolutionary dynamics can be incorporated into individual based models, and that all that is required is an understanding of the probability of offspring inheriting the parental phenotype.

Tags

Dynamics birds Populations Temperature Responses Recent climate-change Predictive ecology Formal darwinism Rapid evolution Clutch size