Assessing the sensitivity of bivalve populations to global warming using an individual-based modelling approach
Authored by Yoann Thomas, Cedric Bacher
Date Published: 2018
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.14402
Sponsors:
French National Center for Scientific Research (CNRS)
Platforms:
No platforms listed
Model Documentation:
Other Narrative
Model Code URLs:
Model code not found
Abstract
Climate change exposes benthic species populations in coastal ecosystems
to a combination of different stressors (e.g., warming, acidification
and eutrophication), threatening the sustainability of the ecological
functions they provide. Thermal stress appears to be one of the
strongest drivers impacting marine ecosystems, acting across a wide
range of scales, from individual metabolic performances to geographic
distribution of populations. Accounting for and integrating the response
of species functional traits to thermal stress is therefore a necessary
step in predicting how populations will respond to the warming expected
in coming decades. Here, we developed an individual-based population
model using a mechanistic formulation of metabolic processes within the
framework of the dynamic energy budget theory. Through a large number of
simulations, we assessed the sensitivity of population growth potential
to thermal stress and food conditions based on a climate projection
scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway; RCP8.5: no reduction of
greenhouse gas emissions). We focused on three bivalve species with
contrasting thermal tolerance ranges and distinct distribution ranges
along 5,000km of coastline in the NE Atlantic: the Pacific oyster
(Magallana gigas), and two mussel species: Mytilus edulis and Mytilus
galloprovincialis. Our results suggest substantial and contrasting
changes within species depending on local temperature and food
concentration. Reproductive phenology appeared to be a core process
driving the responses of the populations, and these patterns were
closely related to species thermal tolerances. The nonlinear
relationship we found between individual life-history traits and
response at the population level emphasizes the need to consider the
interactions resulting from upscaling across different levels of
biological organisation. These results underline the importance of a
process-based understanding of benthic population response to seawater
warming, which will be necessary for forward planning of resource
management and strategies for conservation and adaptation to
environmental changes.
Tags
Population dynamics
Climate scenario
biogeography
Climate-change
Dynamics model
Energy budget theory
Phenology
Mussel mytilus-edulis
Dynamic energy budget
Oyster crassostrea-gigas
Pacific oyster
English-channel
Temperature tolerance
Ecological niche
Benthic species
Global warming
Reproductive-cycles
Thermal physiology